若离开阿里巴巴 雅虎价值几何

Yahoo is dressed like a high-growth company. But it may soon have to revert to humbler garb.雅虎(Yahoo)装扮得像一家低快速增长公司。但它有可能迅速就得现出原形。Much of the Internet companys value rests on its 24% stake in Alibaba. Investors seeking exposure to the unlisted Chinese e-commerce juggernaut have flocked to Yahoos shares. These now sport a tech-like multiple of 25.5 times 2014 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, about double that of Google.这家互联网公司的价值有相当大一部分在于其持24%的阿里巴巴股份。想投资于这家未上市中国电子商务巨头的投资者争相买入雅虎投票。

依据雅虎2014年预期息税保险费摊销前收益计算出来的市盈率目前为25.5倍，与科技公司估值非常，差不多是谷歌(Google)的两倍。But when Alibaba completes its initial public offering, expected next year, investors must ask whether Yahoo still is worth owning without its glitzy wardrobe.但阿里巴巴预计明年将已完成首次公开发表IPO(IPO)，预计投资者认同不会回答，在雅虎丧失了阿里巴巴股份这一眩目的行头之后，它否依然有一点享有。The decline of the Internet portal as the most efficient way to reach the greatest number of users and the rise of programmatic ad buying, which is site-agnostic, have created permanent challenges for Yahoos display advertising business, according to Pivotal Research. Meanwhile, Yahoos share of search, as tracked by comScore, continues to deteriorate, dropping to 11.2% in November from 12.1% a year earlier.据市场研究机构Pivotal Research，门户网站曾多次是影响仅次于用户群体的最有效途径，但这种途径经常出现衰败，不论站点的程序化广告出售的蓬勃发展给雅虎的展出广告业务带给了永久的挑战。与此同时，comScore追踪的雅虎在搜寻市场占有的份额持续上升，11月降到11.2%，上年同期为12.1%。

Since Marissa Mayer joined Yahoo as chief executive in July 2012 she has pursued various strategies aimed at driving traffic to the site and boosting its advertising business.梅耶尔(Marissa Mayer)自2012年7月重新加入雅虎任首席执行长以来，实行了众多目的提升网站访问量、提振广告业务的策略。Some of these efforts appear to have paid off. In September, Yahoos global traffic, including desktop and mobile, returned to levels unseen since 2011, reversing two years of declines. And traffic to Yahoos sites from desktop users bested Googles in August, September and October, ranking No. 1 on comScores list of Top 50 properties. Mobile growth also has been significant, with more than 400 million monthly active users, up from 200 million at the end of 2012.其中一些措施或许产生了效果。今年9月，雅虎还包括电脑和移动设备的全球访问量完全恢复到2011年以来的最低水平，挽回了沿袭两年的衰败势头。

同时，雅虎网站来自电脑用户的访问量在今年8月、9月和10月多达谷歌，在comScore的网站访问量50强劲排行榜上名列第一。移动访问量的快速增长也十分相当可观，月度活跃用户多达4亿，较2012年底的2亿大大快速增长。Yet that isnt doing much for Yahoos revenue. In the third quarter, display revenue fell 7%, year on year, to $470 million as search revenue dropped 8% to $435 million. Only other revenue, which includes royalties from Alibaba, rose 5% to $234 million. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, display and search revenue were down 10% and 9%, respectively, with other revenue up 8%.然而这种情况对于雅虎的营收并没起着过于大起到。雅虎第三季度展出广告收益同比上升7%，至4.7亿美元，搜寻业务收入上升8%，至4.35亿美元。

只有还包括阿里巴巴缴纳的许可费用在内的“其他收益”减少5%，至2.34亿美元。截至今年9月30日的九个月，展出广告和搜寻业务收入分别上升10%和9%，其他收益快速增长8%。Consensus estimates for 2014 suggest a slight improvement, showing display and search revenue roughly flat and up 7%, respectively. Ebitda, meanwhile, is expected to increase by a modest 3.7%. Adding more personalized user data to its Tumblr ad inventory could be one source of gains, Pivotal says. But it remains to be seen if the turnaround is real.对2014年的完全一致估算表明雅虎的情况将有所恶化，展出广告收益持平，搜寻业务收入快速增长7%。

与此同时，息税保险费摊销前收益预计将小幅快速增长3.7%。Pivotal说道，雅虎在Tumblr广告目录中重新加入更加个性化的用户数据有可能是一个收益来源。

但恶化能否确实构建还有待仔细观察。Analysts say Yahoos core business should be valued at around four to six times 2014 Ebitda -- more like a print media asset. It is difficult to say where that business trades now because so much rests on Alibabas IPO. Estimates of Alibabas value range from $100 billion to $190 billion. To complicate calculations, Yahoo must sell 40% of its stake at the IPO, with the rest to be sold at its discretion, theoretically for more if Alibabas stock rises.分析师们说道，雅虎的核心业务价值大约为2014年息税保险费摊销前收益的四到六倍――更加类似于平面媒体的估值。很难辨别这块业务目前的价值，因为相当大程度上将各不相同阿里巴巴的IPO。阿里巴巴的估值在1,000亿美元至1,900亿美元。

令其计算出来更加简单的是，雅虎必需在IPO之时出售其持股份的40%，其余部分由雅虎自己要求否出售，理论上如果阿里巴巴股价下跌，则能以更高价格售出。In one scenario, UBS estimates Alibaba will list at a $100 billion valuation, which will then climb to $160 billion.其中一种设想的情况是，瑞银(UBS)估算阿里巴巴将以1,000亿美元的估值上市，随后将上升至1,600亿美元。Using this assumption, if Yahoo sold the remaining 60% of its stake at that price, its total after-tax proceeds could be $20.3 billion, or about $20 a share. Yahoos 35% stake in Yahoo Japan adds roughly another $7 a share after tax.按照这种假想，如果雅虎以下跌后的阿里巴巴股价出售其持的其余60%股份，其税后总收益有可能超过203亿美元，约合每股20美元。

雅虎持的35%雅虎日本(Yahoo Japan)股份不会让每股税收收益再行减少约7美元。Taking that $27 and net cash of $3.11 a share on Yahoos books at the end of the third quarter off the current share price leaves $10.96 a share. That implies a $11.1 billion valuation for Yahoos core business, or 7.1 times 2014 Ebitda -- pricey relative to analyst models. And that likely understates the multiple, since Alibabas high-margin royalty payments would need to be factored out of Yahoos Ebitda.从雅虎当前股价中乘以上面计算出来的27美元以及雅虎第三季度末账面上的每股现金3.11美元，获得的是每股10.96美元。这意味著雅虎核心业务估值为1,110亿美元，以2014年预期息税保险费摊销前收益计算出来的市盈率为7.1倍――比起分析师假设的情况来说过低了。而且这还有有可能高估了这个倍数，因为阿里巴巴缴纳的高利润许可费必须从雅虎的息税保险费摊销前收益中去除。

Investors can only guess at what Yahoo will look like underneath its designer wardrobe. But chances are it will look more like Gannett than Google.投资者不能猜测雅虎光彩夺目的外表下面是何种真面目。但它很有可能更加类似于媒体公司Gannett，而不是像谷歌这样的互联网公司。

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