Facebook想模仿微信,它做得到吗?

SAN FRANCISCO — As Mark Zuckerberg begins shifting Facebook to private messaging and away from public sharing and open conversations, the vision he has sketched out for the future of social networking already exists — just not in the United States.旧金山——马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)开始让Facebook从公共共享和公开发表对话改向私人信息，然而他为未来社交网络所刻画的愿景早已不存在了——只不过不出美国。Instead, it is a reality in China through a messaging app called WeChat.它反而是由一个名为微信的通讯应用程序在中国构建的。

Developed by the Chinese internet giant Tencent in 2011, WeChat lets people message each other via one-on-one texts, audio or video calls. Users can also form groups of as many as 500 people on WeChat to discuss and debate the issues of the day.微信是中国互联网巨头腾讯于2011年研发的，它让人们可以通过一对一的文本、音频或视频通话相互发送信息。用户还可以在微信上构成最少500人的小组，辩论和辩论当天的话题。While Facebook users constantly see ads in their News Feeds, WeChat users only see one or two ads a day in their Moment feeds. That’s because WeChat isn’t dependent on advertising for making money. It has a mobile payments system that has been widely adopted in China, which allows people to shop, play games, pay utility bills and order meal deliveries all from within the app. WeChat gets a commission from many of these services.Facebook用户常常在他们的新闻源中看见广告，而微信用户每天只不会在他们的“找到”消息源中看见一两个广告。

这是因为微信不倚赖广告赚。它的移动支付系统在中国获得了广泛应用，人们可以在该应用于内购物、玩游戏、缴纳水电费和订餐。微信从这些众多的服务当中取得佣金。

“WeChat has shown definitively that private messaging, especially the small groups, is the future,” said Jeffrey Towson, a professor of investment at Peking University. “It is the uber utility of business and life. It has shown the path.”“微信具体地向人们展现，私人信息是未来的趋势，特别是在是小群体信息，”北京大学投资学教授陶迅(Jeffrey Towson)回应。“它是商业和生活的超级实用工具。

它早已说明了道路。”What is happening in China offers clues to not only how Facebook may carry out its shift, but how the internet more broadly might change. Many of Silicon Valley’s tech giants are dependent today on online advertising to make enough money to keep growing and innovating on new services. Some call online ads the lifeblood of the internet.中国正在再次发生的事情不仅为Facebook转型获取了线索，也为更加普遍的互联网有可能再次发生的变化获取了线索。如今，硅谷的许多科技巨头都倚赖在线广告来赚到充足的钱，以维持在新的服务领域的快速增长和创意。

有些人把网络广告称作互联网的命脉。But WeChat, which has 1.1 billion monthly active users, shows that other models — particularly those based on payments and commerce — can support massive digital businesses. That has implications for Google, Twitter and many others, as well as Facebook.但每月活跃用户约11亿的微信指出，其他模式——特别是在是基于缴纳和商务的模式——可以反对大规模的数字业务。这对谷歌、Twitter和许多其他网站都有灵感，当然也有Facebook。

WeChat, of course, has its own flaws. The messaging app is heavily censored because of requirements by the Chinese government.当然，微信也有自己的缺点。由于中国政府的拒绝，这款信息应用于受到了严苛的审查。

Facebook and Tencent did not immediately respond to requests for comment.Facebook和腾讯没立刻对此置评催促。Mr. Zuckerberg didn’t elaborate much this week on how the change toward private messaging would affect Facebook’s business, which relies on people publicly sharing posts to be able to serve them targeted advertisements. In a blog post, he said Facebook would build more ways for people to interact on top of messaging, “including calls, video chats, groups, stories, businesses, payments, commerce, and ultimately a platform for many other kinds of private services.”扎克伯格本周没详尽阐述向私人信息服务的改变将如何影响Facebook的业务，目前，它的业务依赖按照用户公开发表共享的帖子，为他们获取定向广告服务。他在一篇博客文章中说道，Facebook将向人们获取更加多方式，让他们在信息传输的基础上展开对话，“还包括电话、视频聊天、群组、故事、企业、缴纳、商业，最后还将沦为许多其他私人服务的平台。

”Yet it’s unclear whether Mr. Zuckerberg can pull all those features off with Facebook. On WeChat, those services are underpinned by its mobile payments system, WeChat Pay. Because payments is already tied into the messaging service, people can easily order meal deliveries, book hotels, hail ride-sharing cars and pay their bills. WeChat Pay itself has 900 million monthly active users.不过，目前还不确切扎克伯格能否在Facebook上构建所有这些功能。在微信上，这些服务的基础是其移动支付系统“微信缴纳”。

由于缴纳同信息传输服务绑在一起，人们可以精彩地采购送餐服务、预约酒店、叫车和缴纳账单。微信缴纳本身每月有九亿活跃用户。People also use WeChat Pay to transfer money and to buy personal finance products. More than 100 million customers have purchased WeChat’s personal finance products, which managed over 500 billion yuan, or $74 billion, by the end of last September, Tencent has said. Its users can buy everything from bonds and insurance to money market funds through the app.人们也用于微信缴纳账户和出售个人理财产品。腾讯回应，截至去年9月底，有数一亿多客户出售了微信的个人理财产品，这些产品管理着多达5000亿人民币（合740亿美元）的资金。

用户可以通过该应用于出售从债券、保险到货币市场基金在内的一切东西。Facebook lacks such a payments system. So to be more like WeChat, the Silicon Valley company could have to acquire banking and payment licenses in many countries. One sign that Facebook has been thinking about payments is its work on a new crypto coin that is meant to let people send money to contacts on their messaging systems.Facebook没这样的缴纳系统。因此，为了更加像微信，这家硅谷公司有可能必需在许多国家提供银行和缴纳牌照。

Facebook仍然在考虑到缴纳业务的一个迹象是，该公司正在研发一种新的加密货币，目的让人们可以将钱发送给他们消息系统中的联系人。To make Facebook a private messaging product, Mr. Zuckerberg may have a lot else to learn from Allen Zhang, the creator of WeChat. Mr. Zhang is famous for his perfectionist pursuit of a well-designed service.为把Facebook变为私人消息产品，扎克伯格有可能还有很多其他方面要向微信创始人张小龙自学。

张小龙以对精美服务设计的完美主义执着而闻名。“He is renowned in China’s tech scene as an artist and philosopher, as well as for his fierce mission against anything that degrades user experience,” Connie Chan, an investor at the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, recently wrote of Mr. Zhang.“他在中国科技界的有名是作为一个艺术家和哲学家，还有他以杯葛一切减少用户体验的东西为己任，”风险投资公司安德森·霍洛维茨(Andreessen Horowitz)的投资人陈梅陵(Connie Chan)近期在关于张小龙的文章中写到。

Mr. Zhang fought many internal battles when Tencent’s revenue department pushed to put more ads on WeChat. In a four-hour speech earlier this year, he pondered the question of why there were not more ads on the messaging service, especially the opening-page ads that are the norm in many other Chinese mobile apps.当腾讯的营收部门劝说着想在微信上投入更加多广告时，张小龙在公司内部打了很多场仗。在今年年初四小时的演说中，他让大家思维一个问题，为什么这款消息平台上没有那么多广告，尤其是启动页广告，这在很多其他中国手机应用程序上是常态。

Mr. Zhang’s answer: Many Chinese spent a lot of time — about one third of their online time — on WeChat, he said. “If WeChat were a person, it would have to be your best friend so that you would be willing to spend so much time with it,” he said. “How could I post an ad on the face of your best friend? Every time you see it, you’ll have to watch an ad before you can talk to it.”张小龙的答案是：很多中国人花上大量时间——约他们网际网路时间的三分之一——在微信上，他说道。“如果微信是一个人，他是你最差的朋友，因为你在他那里花上最少的时间，”他说道。“不期望你跟最差的朋友说出，再行看他脸上的广告，然后所取下来再行跟他说出。”Mr. Zhang, who has made restraint his product philosophy, has been lucky because Tencent makes most of its money from online games so that it does not need to sell ads for revenue.张小龙已将抗拒作为他的产品哲学，他仍然很幸运地，因为腾讯大部分营利来自在线游戏，所以不必须靠卖广告赚。

Tencent doesn’t break out its revenues from WeChat, but its financial report for the third quarter of 2018 said that social advertising revenue, which includes WeChat, grew 61 percent from a year earlier, while the category called “other businesses,” which includes payment services, rose by 69 percent.腾讯没发布它的微信收益，但其2018年第三季度的财务报告称之为，还包括微信在内的社交广告收益同比下跌了61%，而还包括缴纳服务的取名为“其他业务”的类别则快速增长了69%。Mr. Zuckerberg does not have that luxury, given that he is trying to switch from an ad-based business into a different model. It will be far from an easy task to pull off.扎克伯格可没有这样的优势，鉴于他于是以希望从基于广告的业务改向有所不同的模式。

它构建一起将近没有那么更容易。“Zuck is clearly trying to address Facebook’s problems of privacy and fake news, but it will greatly affect its monetization capability,” said Ivy Li, a venture capitalist at Seven Seas Partners in Menlo Park, Calif. “How comprehensive the surgery is going to be and whether the implementation will be twisted by all kinds of compromises is a big question.”“扎克伯格似乎在希望应付Facebook的隐私和假消息问题，但这将严重影响其盈利能力，”加州门洛帕克的七海资本(Seven Seas Partners)的风险投资人艾薇·李(Ivy Li)说道。“这场变革不会有多全面，继续执行上否会因各种让步而变形是个大问题。

”She added: “Facebook is trying to seek a balance between a public square and a private space in an increasingly polarizing society. The final result could be it will be abandoned by both.”她还说道：“Facebook于是以希望谋求在日益两极化的社会中，在公共平台与私人空间之间获得均衡。最后结果可能会是被两者所舍弃。

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