硅谷正经历新一轮互联网泡沫?

With startups fetching valuations as high as $18 billion, one persistent question remains: Is cash-laden Silicon Valley in the throes of another bubble? Fortune sought out five tech folks at last night’s 40 Under 40 party in San Francisco on Thursday night for more insight. Their answers may surprise you.随着科技业初创公司的总估值超过难以置信的180亿美元，有一个问题一直挥之不去：现金罄的硅谷否正在经历另一场泡沫？上周四晚，在旧金山的“40位40岁以下商界精英”的聚会上，《财富》（Fortune）咨询了其中五位科技专家回应的观点。他们的问或许不会让你惊讶。Marc Benioff马克·贝尼奥夫CEO, Salesforce.comSalesforce.com首席执行官“It’s not a tech bubble. It’s the biggest wave of innovation in the history of the world. It’s a combining of unbelievable forces of cloud, social networks, mobility plus connected products.“这不是科技泡沫，而是世界史上仅次于的创意浪潮。

这是云、社交网络、移动性和联网产品融合而产生的一股难以想象的强劲力量。”A great example of that is Apple Pay, which I’ve been using today. I went to Walgreens, I put my phone right up against the Verifone receiver, and I did a transaction on Apple Pay. Apple Pay is an amazing new platform. It’s going to help create new companies. It’s going to create a new wave of infrastructure investments where all the point-of-sale systems are going to have to be replaced. And then it’s a huge accelerator for Apple.“最差的一个例子就是苹果缴纳(Apple Pay)，我今天他用了它。

我去沃尔格林（Walgreens）买药，把手机对准惠尔丰（Verifone）收款机，利用苹果缴纳已完成了一笔交易。苹果缴纳是一个有趣的新平台，不会促成许多新的公司。它将不会引导一波新的基础设施投资浪潮，所有的销售终端系统都必须更换。

此外，这对苹果公司（Apple）来说也具备极大的推展起到。”You can just think of that as a metaphor happening in our industry for something that one day doesn’t exist, and the next day it does and how it can change everything. Everything is changing, and there’s never been a more exciting time.”“你可以把这看作我们行业的一个隐喻：一些本不不存在的东西想着就经常出现了，然后就转变了一切。

所有的一切都在转变，从未有过如此有意思的时代。”Joe Gebbia乔·杰比亚Chief product officer and co-founder, Airbnb房屋租赁服务商Airbnb公司牵头创始人兼任首席产品官“It’s all cyclical, right? Just take a look at the stock market over the last 60 years. There’s a cycle involved. But we’re not in a tech bubble because companies are making revenues. And I think that was a major difference between what’s happening right now and what’s happening 14 years ago. Companies today are making real money.”“这一切都是个循环，对吧？只要想到过去60年的股市就告诉了，这只不过是一个循环。但我们目前没遭遇科技泡沫，因为科技公司正在提供收益。我指出现在和14年前再次发生的事情是有区别的。

如今的公司正在赚真为金白银。”Jess Lee杰斯·李CEO and co-founder, PolyvorePolyvore公司首席执行官和联合创始人“I do think we’re in a bubble. There are too many companies with no business model or no sustainable business model. I’m proud that we have one, but I think there’s going to be some kind of correction.”“我显然指出我们遭遇了科技泡沫。有过于多公司没商业模式或没可持续的商业模式。

让我极为自豪的是，我们有自己的商业模式，但我指出接下来行业该有一定的调整了。”Jay Simons杰伊·西蒙斯President, AtlassianAtlassian公司董事长“I believe there’s a lot of optimism in the market right now. Whether there’s a bubble or not a bubble, I believe people are just optimistic. Look at the fact that the PE [price-earnings] ratio is the highest it’s been since 1940 with the exception of 2000.”“我坚信现在寄予厚望市场的人十分多。

无论是不是泡沫，我指出人们都很悲观。想到市盈率吧，除2000年以外，这是自1940年以来的最高值。”Josh Tetrick约什·泰特里克CEO, Hampton CreekHampton Creek公司首席执行官“I don’t. I think a lot of things are overstated on the good and the bad. And I think it’s just human nature to get excited about things and to get too depressed when it looks like something. Eventually, there will be a downturn, but I don’t see it coming any time soon.“我不指出有泡沫。

我实在很多事情的益处和坏处都被高估了。我指出，无论是对这种发展深感激动，还是由于现在的情况很像过去的互联网泡沫而深感失望，都是人之常情。

最后，衰落总要来的，但我指出它远比会这么慢。I think from my perspective and what we’re doing, I think there’s so much noise about there being a bubble. But that [any sort of course correction] is more likely than not to be a year-and-a-half off. And that’s a result of all the customers we’re dealing with from Wal-Mart to Target to Whole Foods and just trying to get a sense of how they’re thinking and just understanding their environment. Feels like it’s a bit off. But it’s not now.”从我的角度和我们的工作来看，我指出关于泡沫的议论过于多了。但是那（某种航向修正）在一年半之内不太可能经常出现。我们仍然跟沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）、塔吉特百货（Target）和全食餐馆（Whole Foods）等客户维持认识，企图理解他们对当今局势的观点和解读，最后得出结论了这样的结论。

看上去形势是有些不过于对头，但现在说道泡沫还为时尚早。

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